News: Southscapes Fall 2008

Research

A Seat at the Round Table —
CAES scientist speaks at Oxford Round Table on Global Warming

By Faith Peppers

At King Arthur's roundtable, he and his knights freely debated the pressing issues that defined their time. All were equals. All sought answers. When Monique Leclerc and her colleagues sat around their roundtable in Oxford, England, in August, they debated the most pressing issue of our time: climate change.

"Civilization is in grave danger…We're about to witness a planetary catastrophe," said Leclerc, a University of Georgia professor of environmental physics. "The message sent a chill up the spine of the audience. This was a Round Table made of world-class scholars talking to their peers from around the globe. It was not time to put on white gloves."

For her leadership and research in atmospheric biogeosciences and global carbon cycle science, she was asked to join the Oxford Round Table on Global Warming and Sustainable Development. For two decades, the prestigious venue has been a forum to discuss public policy issues that affect the world.

In 1960, renowned British physicist James Lovelock said that the environment would be the single biggest issue at the close of the 20th century. "It's very clear this has now become the problem of this century," Leclerc said. "The evidence that our climate has changed is all around us."

Researchers have developed scenarios to predict what might happen decades from now. “The rate of CO₂ emissions produced by fossil fuel burning exceeds the most fossil-fuel intensive CO₂ scenario (in) models for 2005 and 2006 by more than a third," Leclerc said. "We aren't talking about global warming. We're now talking about accelerated global warming."

Greenhouse gases created from fossil fuels increase global warming. But the small particulates emitted in the atmosphere from burning those fuels also reflect sunlight, creating what is called global dimming, she told the Round Table.

These two effects interact in several ways. "Global dimming has shielded us from the full effect of global warming," Leclerc said, "suggesting that our climate has an even greater sensitivity to greenhouse gases than we had previously thought."

This doesn't mean global dimming is beneficial.

In India, home to one-third of the world's population, women cook over twig and cow-dung fires. The fires produce soot, or black carbon, that is transported by the wind and lands on the white-capped Himalayan glaciers. This accelerates melting.

Himalayan glaciers are the source of Asia's five biggest rivers. As the glaciers retreat, there's a massive change in the hydrological cycle. River discharge becomes less. This leads to reduced water supplies.

Scientists now predict global dimming will worsen droughts in Southeast Asia. The soot shifts rain patterns, too, creating clouds in places where they once were not, she said. Where there were deserts, there will be greener areas.

Policy changes can help, she said. For example, when North America and Europe began using catalytic converters, it created short-term, direct benefits to the Sahel region in Africa. The famine there in the 1970s was due to car exhaust emissions. With stricter air quality regulations enacted in Europe and America, emissions decreased and rainfall returned to the drought-stricken region. The famine ended.

"People can be complacent," Leclerc said. "Few realize the far-reaching consequences that on-going and accelerating changes to our Earth's climate have for every living organism and all aspects of life."

The crisis is real. Unless drastic mitigation and adaptation measures are taken, sh said, by the end of the century, the Earth might not be able to sustain life as it is today.

"It has already created many tens of thousands of casualties either directly or indirectly, but its even more dramatic toll can be partly averted provided we act immediately," she said.

Efforts should focus on several fronts simultaneously, including capping CO₂ and other emissions worldwide and increasing public awareness. She also recommends developing more stateregulated nuclear power and increased development, availability and use of alternate energy sources.

Leclerc is doing her part. The Canadian-born scientist joined the College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences faculty in 1995. In 13 years, she has built the UGA Laboratory for Environmental Physics, a program with an international reputation that draws the brightest students and leading scientists from around the world.

She considered several options before CAES, she said. She didn't seek one that would bring her the most notoriety or money. The wife and mother of two wanted to work at a place that would offer her family the best quality of life. "And, when I factor in the proximity to my parents living in Florida and a sunny climate, they were powerful incentives attracting me to this position," she said.

UGA Professor Monique Leclerc (left) is shown troubleshooting the communication system between a CO2 flux system and a data logger while Ph.D. student Chompunut Chayawat does quality control on the data collected.

Leclerc is passionate. But even she can get caught up in her daily grind of writing grants, working on manuscripts and returning phone calls and e-mails. "It all seems so normal. It's as if none of this is happening," she said. "And then you have this intellectual knowledge that scares the hell out of you."

She wants others to know, too. Her understanding of physics spins heads. She explains complicated formulas for measuring carbon flux like she's passing on her mother's secret recipe for pie. If she thinks she's losing you, she will draw pictures to help you.

She has a full grasp of what her science means to the future of civilization.

"One approach is to say, 'I see the tip of the iceberg. I keep dancing, pretending it's not there. I can't do anything about it,' and go on with whatever we're doing," she said. "Or you can be proactive and contribute with everything you have for the greater good. It has become a social imperative for me to be active in a way that will be helpful to as many as
possible."

In referring to the current crisis, she quoted Princeton physicist Rob Socolow, who said, "There has never been a greater need of so many talents in such a short period of time throughout the history of humanity."

Learn more about Leclerc's work at www.biogeosciences.uga.edu.

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